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Corona Virus (Take Two)

The last thread disintegrated into a “My political party is better than your political party, and I have the links to prove it”, yet the virus is still here, and the reaction to it is just as worrying as the virus itself.

Here in the UK, the general public seems to be split into two camps, those who “can, and do” intend to self-isolate to some degree, and those who have “no option” but to carry on as normal. We can’t all work from home, and closing schools, whist effective, means that someone has to be at home to look after them. Office blocks are closing telling key workers to work from home, but what about the people who serviced those workers. The cleaners, the food outlets that supplied lunch, inevitably if you can’t do it on-line, your business suffers through lack of footfall.

Meanwhile, supermarkets are selling out (ironically), as people start to stock up on tinned stuff, toilet paper (why?), and long-life milk, presumably expecting cows to be affected shortly. Panic of any sort never made much sense.

Pubs, restaurants, clubs and other event venues will suffer, and many without the finances to withstand this will go to the wall. Same with the large industries, some due to lack of customers, some because of supply chain problems, only the strong will survive. 130 billion wiped off the stock market this morning, the drop averaging at 10% across every company listed. The has been aggravated by the “Oil price war”, going on at the moment between OPEC and Russia. With the drop in industry production, less oil is needed, So OPEC, in an attempt to sustain prices, reduced production. Russia refused to join in, so OPEC increased production, sending the price per barrel plummeting. This in turn, caused the stock marked to crash upon the news, aggravating an already fragile market.

How’s your 401k doing today ? – though if your planned retirement is ten years away, I wouldn’t panic just yet. There are enough people running around like headless chickens to be getting on with for now.

But back to the virus. Corvid 19 is no more deadly than the flu we’re all used to, but it presents two problems. First is the spread rate, which is frankly phenomenal. Second is that the closest vaccine is a year away. So let’s put that into perspective. Just like “normal flu” that rattles its way around every year, it is (mainly) only dangerous to “people with underlying health conditions”. If you have an underlying health condition, you get prioritised for the vaccine, and trust that you’ll be OK. With Corvid 19, there is no vaccine (yet), so if you do have underlying health conditions, you would probably do well to keep away as much as possible from others.

With a bit of simple research, you will find that it was the same with “Spanish Flu”. With WW1 coming to an end, and with the field hospitals crowded with the injured, the flu virus ripped through them with no mercy. With fresh “carriers” coming in to tend to the wounded, the death toll was inevitable. It wasn’t that the strain of flu was particularly virulent, it was that it had a sitting target of crowded wounded to prey upon. The second (reported) outbreak a year later was less dramatic, as the most vulnerable had been taken by the first one.

But as said above, with isolation now becoming the best way people with underlying health conditions can avoid being compromised, there is a knock-on effect for the economy as a whole, as there are a host of potential carers out there who look after them. The combined effect of this Corona virus should not be underestimated, both on us, the people, and the economy.

While the above is (mostly) corroborated by history, some of it very recent, the following is just my personal opinion. This is going to get worse before it gets better, both medically and economically. The majority will likely get this virus, and overcome it with only mild symptoms, so I wouldn’t panic just yet. The very fact that we are “worried” about it, is a both a blessing, and a curse. The blessing is that most of us with underlying health conditions are in a position to avoid high contact with others, the curse being the knee jerk reactions of others, and the economy.

The amount of “fake news” going around on this subject is almost as dangerous as the virus itself. Face masks are seen as effective and useless, anti-bacterial soap is about as good as an ordinary bar of soap – the list goes on – depends on what you’re selling, and how much you can play into other people’s fears ……
 

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Around here, there is also the "need" to hoard toilet paper...I don't understand it either. Our local Costco's are selling out as if there were no tomorrow...but as I like to point out, they should be buying SOAP instead of TP.

Even the nightly left-wing news has mentioned that the fatality rate of this virus is only about 0.8% until you reach 40 years of age, whereon the number climbs just above 1%. Those over 85 have a 15% chance of succumbing to this disease, provided they don't have any other underlying conditions.
Although the numbers seem high (over 18,000 globally) we have to take that into perspective: out of 6 billion means a death rate of less than .001 %
All one has to do is see how badly people haven fallen for the latest "climate change" emergency, to understand how and why mass-panic happens.
People can be like sheep sometimes.
 

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fear of death is homo sapiens biggest existential angst. It can be applied to any threat to survival of the individual or collective.
 

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I went to this hypnotizing show one time. I just sat and watched the audience as much as the people on stage. It was a life changing day. I realized how easily some people could be hypnotized. Some like me weren't fazed. Some were fully taken over with just the least amount of trying. What I'm getting at, the media can control enough people's thoughts to get whatever they want. Advertisers have known this for ages. I don't believe anything I see on the news. Most of it is either made up or exaggerated beyond what really happened. So let the easily hypnotized sheep buy their toilet paper. The strong minded will keep the world running until the media counts to 3. Then it will be on to the next crisis.
 

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this might be a little more that than a slick hypnosis show... and I doubt that most is either made up or exaggerated. I can't think of a country that is looking for economic and/or social distress. for sure it is taking up a lot of oxygen and fueling some pretty serious anxiety.

on a side note.... it is certainly cutting back on the global carbon output
 

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The amount of “fake news” going around on this subject is almost as dangerous as the virus itself. …
I took the risk and wore out a Trail Wing on my TW when everyone said it would kill me before it was toast !!! I survived the Deathwing for 8k miles! Yes, it threw me off once on a steep downhill right turn under heavy braking on a dirt road close to home but I learned its limitations and survived for 6k more miles !! ??????
 

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The first Corona cases have been reported in South Africa too. Given the fact that the HIV pandemic we face and the rampant TB rates too, we're in for a horrible time if the virus spreads. The squaller around the larger cities and the shanty towns are unfortunately the places that will be hit the hardest if this thing spreads.
Apparently patient 0 was interacting with other people for a few days before being diagnosed. This thing is big and the spread will surprise everyone, our healthcare system is barely able to cope with the day to day patients. In the state hospitals the patients are lucky to be seen by a doctor on the first day they go there, and the private hospitals are prohibitively expensive unless you have medical aid.
The other problem is that we have is the large population of people from neighboring countries that will run home as soon as the virus start spreading, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, etc. This has the potential to become a major killer here in Africa and whole communities can be decimated. The timing could also not be worse as we are going from summer into autumn now and people are starting to congregate indoors as temperatures start to drop.

We are up shit creek without a paddle should this thing spread!
 

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My sister in law lives in Italy and indeed the country is shut down. She is a school teacher and has not been to work for over a month. Her husband works for a major airline and does not know when he will fly again. Needless to say we keep them in our prayers as his mother has health issues and food shortages are starting to be a problem.
 

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Purple, I know you don't like links.... and this is an interesting article by Tucker Carlson on Fox News.... not his usual

Maybe that's been the plan all along....release a virus and then stop exporting medical supplies...let the West die off and then simply march in and take over.....
 

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troll - the occasional link is inevitable, it's just the "endless litany" of links that defeat discussion - its like "carpet bombing" ......
 

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Maybe that's been the plan all along....release a virus and then stop exporting medical supplies...let the West die off and then simply march in and take over.....
not really the area of the article I was thinking about...… what caught my attention was Tucker saying we need to hear the truth... not misinformation. "... the corona virus will get worse - our leaders need to stop lying about that..."
 

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What we have to remember is that so far there is "only" a 3% mortality rate, and that is predominantly people with pre-existing medical conditions...immuno-compromised...frail and elderly...etc.
Depending on which News source I look up, I get either "wash your hands and you'll be fine" or "We all gunna die!!!"

So it's hard to take the media seriously....
 

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I think there are two factors screwing the figures at the moment – the first being that the fatalities for Covid 19 (at this point) can only be “projected” – the other being at present we have no inoculation. The facts of this case can be interpreted in two different ways, depending on which direction you come from – even the figures vary widely from year to year in the UK, but it seems to average around 17k between 2014/15 and 2018/19

We have a long way to go before the numbers can be relied on (if indeed they ever can), but remember, the numbers quoted above are “with inoculations” available. The trouble is, that viruses have a habit of mutating, usually de-escalating, but you can’t rely on this. Add to that an aging population, and then you start rolling the dice. But “primarily”, I don’t see Covid 19 as being “more deadly”, so it becomes a balance of waiting for the inoculation, while todays society is more prepared for it than in the days of “Spanish flu”

Self-isolation seems to the key, with “home deliveries” of basic groceries being the norm in the last few weeks (UK). Although in Italy for instance, the announcement of “self-isolation” sent the population out into the streets queuing up for supermarket supplies – rather defeating the point. If you take “self-isolation” to a national level, which many countries are now doing, we may stop this yet – at least until we have a vaccine. But look at the flu death figures, and that’s with the vaccine being readily available. Double the deaths ?

Say what you want about “His Highness, the Trump”, but he’s right to lock down the USA against outside infection. At the moment, it seems the best way to stop the infection from spreading, or at least to slow it down. The only thing I can’t figure out, is why the UK and Ireland are still allowed in. Sure, the rest of Europe is a walking catastrophe as far as this virus is concerned, but I can’t help feeling the UK is not that far behind, given the contagion rate of Covid 19

Two things I have “heard said” are that America does not have enough testing kits at the moment, and that seeking medical advice costs too much for the average citizen. “Fake news”, sure, some of it, but contrast that to the way we are dealing with it in the UK. Over here, “if you think you have Covid 19, do not present at a hospital, a health centre, or a pharmacy. Instead dial 111, and follow instructions to self-isolate”. This advice is fairly typical over here, which is “If you are still alive after two weeks, come back and see me”. Basically, we are only testing known (contact) or extreme cases

Think you have Covid 19 – cool – stay at home till it’s over

Ultimately, that’s going to the advice for any country, no one single health system can cope with the potential numbers ……..
 

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I'm just gonna live my life normally. I don't buy the hype. More test will reveal more people have it. So what? I bet if you tested more people for MRSA more people would have it. If you tested more people for the flu more people would have it too. I just don't knee jerk to every "crisis" the media comes up with. Remember Y2K? A bunch of panic for nothing. The sun still came up and no satellites fell on anyone's head.
 
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