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It appears that there is no increase in COVID infection due to the recent world wide protests. Theory is because most people were outside. If so, I think this is fantastic news. That means people can relatively safely congregate outside.*

*Even if they are merely having common family fun on the beach and not just protesting the newest overwrought issue shoved down their throat by social media.
One of those infected at my wifes work went to a protest and got infected. I have heard that many are gettting infected at the protests.
 

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One of those infected at my wifes work went to a protest and got infected. I have heard that many are gettting infected at the protests.
Serves them right....
Over 5000 new cases in Florida on Thursday...when will people learn? The numbers you see today, are the results of their actions TWO WEEKS AGO!
 

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It's a pretty lame argument to claim that masks are ineffective, when every healthcare worker and first response person wears them, and this is a requirement of PPE by virtually every hospital in the world. And yes, it's good practice to wear one in the presence of the dead horse.
The only influential persons (and I use that word sarcastically) in the US who aren't using them, are Pence and Trump, who may end up as dead jackasses because of it.
...Is flu-ential a word?
 

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Irregardless of the politics behind how deaths are reported the total death count should be considered when trying to evaluate how much we are being asked to sacrifice prior to the November election.
Looking at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics latest report of total deaths as of week of June 20th shows that in the US of the 23,276 reported deaths all deaths involving COVID-19
( presumed or confirmed cases coded ICD-10 code U07.1) were only 481. They report this as 37% of the expected deaths.
Follow the laid out data trail yourself rather than dismiss this out of hand just because I didn't give a direct and easy link. I've found that you can tell someone something, or show them, but they really have to pee on the electric fence themselves to really learn some shocking truths.
 

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Serves them right....
Over 5000 new cases in Florida on Thursday...when will people learn? The numbers you see today, are the results of their actions TWO WEEKS AGO!
The incubation period is from 1 to 14 days. So the results are not from 2 weeks prior, but from sometime within that period.
 
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6 to 12 days for symptoms if there are any and another 6 from there to hospitalization.... 18 to 20 day lag.....
 

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just to keep this on the front burner

A staggering 36 US states reported a rise in cases last week. In Florida, officials recorded 9,585 new cases on Saturday -- a single-day record since the start of the pandemic. Just as states were beginning to reopen after lockdown, at least a dozen have halted their plans to further ease restrictions.

... and the worst isn't over
 

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Interesting that no one here is talking about Penn State's study indicating early estimates of COVID-19 cases may be 80 times greater than previously reported. Kind of makes one think lethality has been overestimated by a factor or 80 too. Seems to question claimed effectiveness of subsequent lock-downs and use of masks since there was a significantly higher population initially infected.

From their NEWS MEDICAL SCIENCE LIFESTYLES site:

"Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.
Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.
In a paper published today (June 22) in the journal Science Translational Medicine, researchers estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.
We analyzed each state's ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels. When you subtract these out, you're left with what we're calling excess ILI - cases that can't be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens."
Justin Silverman, Assistant Professor in Penn State's College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine
The researchers found that the excess ILI showed a nearly perfect correlation with the spread of COVID-19 around the country.
Said Silverman, "This suggests that ILI data is capturing COVID cases, and there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought."
Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period.
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"At first I couldn't believe our estimates were correct," said Silverman. "But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on January 15."
The researchers also used this process to estimate infection rates for each state, noting that states showing higher per capita rates of infection also had higher per capita rates of a surge in excess ILI. Their estimates showed rates much higher than initially reported but closer to those found once states began completing antibody testing.
In New York, for example, the researchers' model suggested that at least 9% of the state's entire population was infected by the end of March. After the state conducted antibody testing on 3,000 residents, they found a 13.9% infection rate, or 2.7 million New Yorkers.
Excess ILI appears to have peaked in mid-March as, the researchers suggest, fewer patients with mild symptoms sought care and states implemented interventions which led to lower transmission rates. Nearly half of U.S. states were under stay-at-home orders by March 28."

The findings suggest an alternative way of thinking about the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus' lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially," Silverman explained. "A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation of the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world."
 

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Irregardless of the politics behind how deaths are reported the total death count should be considered when trying to evaluate how much we are being asked to sacrifice prior to the November election.
Looking at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics latest report of total deaths as of week of June 20th shows that in the US of the 23,276 reported deaths all deaths involving COVID-19
( presumed or confirmed cases coded ICD-10 code U07.1) were only 481. They report this as 37% of the expected deaths.
Follow the laid out data trail yourself rather than dismiss this out of hand just because I didn't give a direct and easy link. I've found that you can tell someone something, or show them, but they really have to pee on the electric fence themselves to really learn some shocking truths.
This is incorrect. If you want the correct report from the CDC, you merely need to look at the weekly report that is clearly posted in an easy-to-find location: United States of America: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard

If you want a reasonably accurate forecast of deaths by October 1st, you can go to the IHME website: IHME | COVID-19 Projections
This forecast shows that there will be 50,000 more deaths in the US between now and then.

I peed on the fence, and found that 50,000 people will die from Covid-19 in the next 3 months, and that's month shy of election day. This is how much we're being asked to sacrifice, regardless of the politics.
 

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As of tomorrow, Oregon will require face masks to be worn in all indoor public places and businesses throughout the State.
This is also being implemented in other areas including Jacksonville FL, where Trump plans to pack a convention hall with people for the Republican Convention for nomination for reelection on Aug. 24. Grab your popcorn... It's going to get interesting.
 

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just to keep this on the front burner

A staggering 36 US states reported a rise in cases last week. In Florida, officials recorded 9,585 new cases on Saturday -- a single-day record since the start of the pandemic. Just as states were beginning to reopen after lockdown, at least a dozen have halted their plans to further ease restrictions.

... and the worst isn't over
Test more people, find more cases.... Testing in the states also went from 500K per day to 600k per day in that same week.

What really counts is the rolling average of positive cases per tested cases. The average is indeed up. Which most people would agree would be the effect of lessening restrictions. If it keeps going up, then there is a problem. We shouldn't clutch our pearls and faint at every move up, nor should we pop champagne when it goes down.

Rolling averages make journalists have to think and not just parrot the most recent numbers.

But, hey, I am not selling advertising space either.

From Johns Hopkins using Covid Tracking project data.


Here is a pretty graph for the lesser inclined.

206506
 

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I thought this was very interesting:
The Coronavirus Was Detected In Sewage In March Of 2019, Far From Wuhan, China

"Researchers from the University of Barcelona say they detected the virus in sewage samples were collected in the Spanish city on March 12, 2019. That’s several months before the first cases that would lead to the current pandemic were officially identified in Wuhan, China in early December."
etc.
 

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As has been pointed-out by a true conspiracy theorist amongst us, Forbes is owned by a Chinese company, so if I was prone to accepting rumors as fact (which I'm not), I would hop on this pony and ride it all the way to Area 51. As the report states, it must be vetted by other scientists before taking it seriously. That said, it's definitely interesting.
 

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